Los Angeles Chargers

Omarion Hampton Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Omarion Hampton has gone over 19.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 23.9 REC YDS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutOmarion Hampton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hampton also mentioned earning a Terrell Davis comp from McDaniel this offseason. There's understandably a lot of hype around the Chargers offense with McDaniel taking over and OTs Joe Alt (foot) and Rashawn Slater (knee) expected to return from last year's season-ending injuries. The situation is indeed promising for Hampton in terms of per-carry efficiency and TD upside, but there's been some doubt about his workload projection after the Chargers gave Keaton Mitchell a two-year, $9.3 million contract this offseason. They also still have Kimani Vidal, but Hampton is the largest of the bunch (6-foot, 220 pounds) and probably also the best pass catcher -- without sacrificing much in terms of speed (4.46 40) or agility. If McDaniel's offense lives up to the hype, Hampton won't need 300 carries to make his fantasy managers happy.

Verdict

vs 19.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

20.9 REC YDS(×0.96 context)

L5 16.4 · L10 23.9 · med 19.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 10.4 · ceil 34.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
19.5Current	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8

Last 8 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 19.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs HOU

Dec 27, 2025

12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

HOU allows 16.2 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Omarion Hampton has gone over 19.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.