Cleveland Browns

Raheim Sanders Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Raheim Sanders has gone over 2.5 CAR in 3 of his last 4 decided games (75%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 6.3 CAR · PrizePicks line

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OutRaheim Sanders isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sampson injured his knee on a kickoff return during Sunday's 34-10 loss to the Jaguars, and he'll be required to miss at least the next four games while on IR. Sanders finished that game with three catches on as many targets for 25 yards along with a one-yard carry, but moving forward, he should see more offensive snaps as the Browns' RB2 behind Quinshon Judkins, with Jaleel McLaughlin slotting in as the No. 3 backfield option. The Browns will stay on the road for a Week 2 tilt against the Buccaneers, whose defense gave up 106 rushing yards and one touchdown on 27 carries (3.9 YPC) in a 33-27 loss to the Bengals in Week 1.

Verdict

vs 2.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line74supports it

Consistency1argues against it

Projection

5.2 CAR(×0.92 context)

L5 6.3 · L10 6.3 · med 6.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.4 · ceil 9.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 54 games

75%over

3 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%

Last 104 games

75%over

3 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%

Last 204 games

75%over

3 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%

Season4 games

75%over

3 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	4/4
	75%	3/4
2.5Current	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
	50%	2/4

Last 4 games — CAR per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 27, 2026

6thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

CAR allows 13.8 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 4 games, Raheim Sanders has gone over 2.5 CAR 3 of 4 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most CAR of 32 teams (13.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.