Baltimore Ravens

Rashod Bateman Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rashod Bateman has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Minnesota
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutRashod Bateman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bateman is coming off a 2025 regular season in which his production was hampered by injuries and tapered off to 19 catches (on 38 targets) for 224 yards and two TDs in 13 games. Assuming improved health this year, the 2021 first-rounder -- who recorded a 45-756-9 receiving line in 17 regular-season contests in 2024 -- is a bounce-back candidate in new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's attack. Next in line on Baltimore's WR depth chart beyond Flowers and Bateman are returnees Devontez Walker and LaJohntay Wester, as well as rookie draftees Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line85supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Last matchup — vs NE

Dec 22, 2025

16thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rashod Bateman has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.