Buffalo Bills

Ray Davis Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ray Davis has gone over 0.5 REC in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.8 REC · our line

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OutRay Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

During the 2025 regular season, Cook logged 309 carries (third in the NFL) for a league-high 1,621 rushing yards in 17 contests, a heavy workload that didn't leave much volume for either Davis (58 carries) or Ty Johnson (50 carries). With Cook entrenched as the Bills' lead back, Davis brings modest fantasy utility into 2026, but he remains a valuable backup who excels as a kicker returner. If Cook were to miss time, Davis -- who racked up 151 rushing yards on 21 carries during a spot start in Week 18 last season -- would likely step in as the starter, with Johnson also in the mix.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 REC

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

25thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 1.7 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 33 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Ray Davis has gone over 0.5 REC 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most REC of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.