Buffalo Bills

Ray Davis Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ray Davis has gone over 0.5 REC YDS in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 8.6 REC YDS · our line

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OutRay Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Frank Gore actually out-snapped Davis 10 to five behind James Cook, as both Davis and Gore rushed one time for three yards. If something were to ever happen to Cook, it looks like Gore could actually have a bigger role than expected, making Davis a shakier bench stash in fantasy.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 27% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line27argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

10.8 REC YDS

L5 8.6 · L10 8.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 20.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5

Last 5 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — vs DET

Sep 18, 2026

15thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

DET allows 16.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Ray Davis has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.