New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson Carries

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over 9.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 11.1 CAR · our line

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OutRhamondre Stevenson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stevenson left Tuesday's practice early, but his exit appears to have been precautionary since he's practicing Thursday in the Patriots' first full-pad practice of training camp. He's splitting first-team reps with TreVeyon Henderson on Thursday, and that arrangement is expected to linger throughout the season as long as both running backs are healthy.

Verdict

vs 9.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency25argues against it

Projection

13.4 CAR(×1.10 context)

L5 13.0 · L10 11.3 · med 9.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 7.0 · ceil 14.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	15/16
	69%	11/16
	56%	9/16
9.5Current	50%	8/16
	44%	7/16
	38%	6/16
	31%	5/16

Last 16 games — CAR per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

A.J. Brown out+1.1 CAR when he sits

Without (11g)

11.5 CAR

55% over 9.5

With (5g)

10.4 CAR

40% over 9.5

Last matchup — vs SEA

Feb 8, 2026

31stof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

SEA allows 9.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over 9.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most CAR of 32 teams (9.5 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.