New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over 18.5 REC YDS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 26.8 REC YDS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutRhamondre Stevenson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stevenson left Tuesday's practice early, but his exit appears to have been precautionary since he's practicing Thursday in the Patriots' first full-pad practice of training camp. He's splitting first-team reps with TreVeyon Henderson on Thursday, and that arrangement is expected to linger throughout the season as long as both running backs are healthy.

Verdict

vs 18.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

30.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)

L5 29.6 · L10 31.2 · med 27.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.0 · ceil 40.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
18.5Current	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16

Last 16 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 18.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 18.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

A.J. Brown out-11.4 REC YDS when he sits

Without (11g)

23.2 REC YDS

45% over 18.5

With (5g)

34.6 REC YDS

60% over 18.5

Last matchup — vs SEA

Feb 8, 2026

6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

SEA allows 18.4 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over 18.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (18.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.