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San Francisco 49ersRicky Pearsall
#1 · WR · 6' 1" · 189 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 73.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRicky Pearsall isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee - PCL Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Feb 15, 2027
Pearsall was held out of the early portions of training camp due to knee swelling, and the injury had reportedly caused some concern for the 49ers. After undergoing further tests, season-ending surgery has been determined as the best move for Pearsall, and the procedure comes with a 6-to-12 month recovery timetable, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com. It's a significant blow for the Florida product, who has played in just 20 regular-season games since being selected by the 49ers in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Deebo Samuel was signed by the Niners on Friday due to injuries to Pearsall and Christian Kirk (calf), and Demarcus Robinson and rookie second-rounder De'Zhaun Stribling are both slated for more opportunities on offense alongside WR1 Mike Evans.
Verdict
vs 84.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
74.2 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 70.0 · L10 73.4 · med 85.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 48.0 · ceil 105.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 84.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 84.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Deebo Samuel out-42.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
49.0 REC YDS
33% over 84.5
With (4g)
91.8 REC YDS
75% over 84.5
Last matchup — vs CHI
Dec 29, 2025
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 47.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Ricky Pearsall has gone over 84.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 36.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.