San Francisco 49ers

Ricky Pearsall Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ricky Pearsall has gone over 13.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 12.0 FS · our line

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OutRicky Pearsall isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee - PCL Not Specified
Est. return:: Feb 15, 2027

Pearsall was held out of the early portions of training camp due to knee swelling, and the injury had reportedly caused some concern for the 49ers. After undergoing further tests, season-ending surgery has been determined as the best move for Pearsall, and the procedure comes with a 6-to-12 month recovery timetable, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com. It's a significant blow for the Florida product, who has played in just 20 regular-season games since being selected by the 49ers in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Deebo Samuel was signed by the Niners on Friday due to injuries to Pearsall and Christian Kirk (calf), and Demarcus Robinson and rookie second-rounder De'Zhaun Stribling are both slated for more opportunities on offense alongside WR1 Mike Evans.

Verdict

vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency29argues against it

Projection

12.3 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 12.0 · L10 12.0 · med 13.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.7 · ceil 15.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 107 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 207 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season7 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	57%	4/7
	57%	4/7
	57%	4/7
13.5Current	50%	3/6
	43%	3/7
	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Deebo Samuel out-6.2 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

8.5 FS

0% over 13.5

With (4g)

14.7 FS

75% over 13.5

Last matchup — vs CHI

Dec 29, 2025

2ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

CHI allows 10.8 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Ricky Pearsall has gone over 13.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most FS of 32 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.