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Pittsburgh SteelersRico Dowdle
#13 · RB · 5' 11" · 215 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Carolina
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 64.9 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
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Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Rico Dowdle's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Toe Not Specified
After exiting midway through the second quarter due to the toe injury, Dowdle was cleared to return coming out of halftime and picked up four touches (three carries, one catch) over the Steelers' first three possessions of the second half. However, he may have aggravated the injury at some point along the way and will now be shut down for the rest of the day. Jaylen Warren is expected to see the bulk of the snaps and touches out of the backfield for the remainder of the Week 2 contest, with Travis Homer and Eli Heidenreich providing depth behind him.
Verdict
vs 32.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
34.9 RUSH YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 27.0 · L10 37.8 · med 41.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 29.0 · ceil 79.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
63%over
10 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–82%Season16 games
63%over
10 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–82%Situational splits
Over 32.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%10/15Medium
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CIN allows 19.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rico Dowdle has gone over 32.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 63% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (19.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 56.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.