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Pittsburgh SteelersRoman Wilson
#10 · WR · 5' 10" · 186 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 22.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRoman Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"He's done a heck of a job inside, and I haven't even talked to him about this yet, but I think we can start working him a little bit more outside, too," McCarthy said of Wilson. "He can line up at X, Z and F, and so far, he's done exactly what we asked." Wilson is competing with rookie second-round pick Germie Bernard for the third spot on Pittsburgh's wide receiver depth chart behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. Bernard got most of the first-team slot reps at Friday's practice, per Alan Saunders of Steelers Now, while Wilson worked mostly on the outside with the second-team offense, which marks a departure from previous practices, when Wilson played primarily in the slot.
Verdict
vs 16.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
21.1 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 26.0 · L10 22.0 · med 17.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 4.6 · ceil 31.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 16.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rico Dowdle out+22.2 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
31.5 REC YDS
75% over 16.5
With (3g)
9.3 REC YDS
33% over 16.5
Last matchup — @ CHI
Nov 23, 2025
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 47.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Roman Wilson has gone over 16.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.