Pittsburgh Steelers

Roman Wilson Targets

Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Roman Wilson has gone over 2.5 TGT in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.6 TGT · our line

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OutRoman Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"He's done a heck of a job inside, and I haven't even talked to him about this yet, but I think we can start working him a little bit more outside, too," McCarthy said of Wilson. "He can line up at X, Z and F, and so far, he's done exactly what we asked." Wilson is competing with rookie second-round pick Germie Bernard for the third spot on Pittsburgh's wide receiver depth chart behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. Bernard got most of the first-team slot reps at Friday's practice, per Alan Saunders of Steelers Now, while Wilson worked mostly on the outside with the second-team offense, which marks a departure from previous practices, when Wilson played primarily in the slot.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency32argues against it

Projection

2.7 TGT(×1.09 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 2.6 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
2.5Current	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out+1.0 TGT when he sits

Without (4g)

3.0 TGT

50% over 2.5

With (3g)

2.0 TGT

0% over 2.5

Last matchup — @ CHI

Nov 23, 2025

18thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

CHI allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Roman Wilson has gone over 2.5 TGT 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.