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Chicago BearsRome Odunze
#15 · WR · 6' 3" · 214 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 56.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRome Odunze isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The 2024 first-round pick led all Bears wideouts in receiving yards on a wet and windy day at Soldier Field. Odunze has had a slow start to the season, managing just a 5-95-0 line on seven targets through two games, and his outlook in the short term won't be improved if the hamstring injury that knocked Caleb Williams out of Sunday's contest proves to be serious. Odunze could be catching passes from Tyson Bagent instead in a Week 3 home tilt against the Eagles.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
43.7 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 38.4 · L10 49.6 · med 43.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 35.0 · ceil 75.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Season14 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 43.5Current | 57% | 8/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days62%8/13Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
PHI allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rome Odunze has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 57% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.