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Chicago BearsRome Odunze
#15 · WR · 6' 3" · 214 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 59.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRome Odunze isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Odunze led the Bears in receiving yards on the night while finishing second in receptions and targets. The third-year wideout's catch and yardage totals both qualified as his second highest of the season, and Odunze now has 156 receiving yards over the last pair of contests for his most productive two-game stretch this season. Odunze is averaging a career-best 16.7 yards per catch and already has a career-high 14 receptions of 20-plus yards heading into a Week 9 home matchup against the Buccaneers on Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency39argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
64.9 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 65.8 · L10 59.4 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 40.6 · ceil 83.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 43.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
21stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
TB allows 40.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Rome Odunze has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 21st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (40.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 21.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 48.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+25.9%
Our model puts the over at 75.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (48.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.