Cincinnati Bengals

Samaje Perine Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Samaje Perine has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.2 RUSH TD · our line

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OutSamaje Perine isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Perine's three touches were well behind starter Chase Brown's 25, with the former playing 24 of 60 offensive snaps (40.0 percent). Perine's 16-yard catch midway through the third quarter converted a third-and-7 for the Bengals and led to an 18-yard touchdown pass from Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase five plays later. Perine is up to 72 scrimmage yards through two regular-season games and is firmly entrenched as the Bengals' RB2 behind Brown. Up next is a Week 3 AFC North tilt against the Steelers, whose defense gave gave up 119 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries between TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in a Week 2 loss to the Patriots.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 81% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line81supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 RUSH TD(×1.05 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Next matchup — @ PIT

Sep 27, 2026

16thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

PIT allows 0.3 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Samaje Perine has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.