Indianapolis Colts

Seth McGowan Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Seth McGowan has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 0 of his last 6 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.0 RUSH TD · our line

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OutSeth McGowan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McGowan's best run was a 16-yarder up the middle midway through the third quarter to take the ball to Jacksonville's three-yard line. That set up Indianapolis' only touchdown in the blowout loss. McGowan logged a modest 15 offensive snaps to starter Jonathan Taylor's 38, but the former outgained Taylor on the ground, 29-23. Meanwhile, DJ Giddens paced the Colts with 43 rushing yards on six totes. The big story, of course, is that the Colts are entertaining trade offers on Taylor, and if the star RB is ultimately dealt, McGowan and Giddens both figure to take on significantly larger roles, though it's unclear which of the two would become the starter. With that in mind, it's worth noting that Giddens didn't enter until the fourth quarter and racked up all of his yardage in garbage time.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.0 RUSH TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 106 games

0%over

0 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%

Last 206 games

0%over

0 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%

Season6 games

0%over

0 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–39%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/5Medium

Next matchup — vs DAL

Nov 8, 2026

13thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

DAL allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Seth McGowan has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 0 of 6 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.