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Washington CommandersStefon Diggs Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Stefon Diggs has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.3 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutStefon Diggs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Diggs tied Rachaad White and Dyami Brown for second on the team with his six targets, three behind Terry McLaurin for the team lead. It was Diggs who accounted for both of Washington's touchdowns, securing scores from Jayden Daniels (elbow) in the second quarter before then catching one from Marcus Mariota in the fourth. Through two games with the Commanders, Diggs has nine catches for 102 yards and three touchdowns on 15 targets. His production figures to take a hit while Daniels is sidelined with his injury.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
4.1 REC(×0.86 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 5.0 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%2/8Low
Away88%7/8Medium
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 2.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Stefon Diggs has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.9%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-3.2% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-104
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.5%
Our model puts the over at 41.6% vs the market's no-vig 51.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Stefon Diggs research
Stefon Diggs — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Diggs Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Diggs Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Diggs Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.