Washington Commanders

Stefon Diggs Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Stefon Diggs has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Maryland
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutStefon Diggs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Diggs tied Rachaad White and Dyami Brown for second on the team with his six targets, three behind Terry McLaurin for the team lead. It was Diggs who accounted for both of Washington's touchdowns, securing scores from Jayden Daniels (elbow) in the second quarter before then catching one from Marcus Mariota in the fourth. Through two games with the Commanders, Diggs has nine catches for 102 yards and three touchdowns on 15 targets. His production figures to take a hit while Daniels is sidelined with his injury.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×0.86 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	44%	7/16
	6%	1/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%3/8Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

Next matchup — vs SEA

Sep 27, 2026

25thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Stefon Diggs has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 44% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.