Cincinnati Bengals

Tahj Brooks Targets

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tahj Brooks has gone over 0.5 TGT in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas Tech
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.5 TGT · our line

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OutTahj Brooks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Brooks was a sixth-round selection of the Bengals in the 2025 NFL Draft and spent most of his rookie campaign as a contributor on special teams while operating behind both Brown and Perine in the backfield. Brooks figures to see continued work on special teams in 2026, but he'll have the opportunity to push Perine out for the RB2 role in training camp and the preseason. Brooks turned 16 carries into 45 yards and added a nine-yard catch across 16 regular-season games in 2025 while also gaining 258 yards on 10 kickoff returns.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 TGT

L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	2/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Last matchup — vs ARI

Dec 28, 2025

19thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

ARI allows 2.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 4 games, Tahj Brooks has gone over 0.5 TGT 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.5 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.