Loading…
Los Angeles RamsTerrance Ferguson
#18 · TE · 6' 5" · 252 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerrance Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Ferguson made it back from his ankle injury, only to be sidelined by another concern two days before he was set for a return to game action. The Rams could use him, as they haven't found a second consistent receiving threat alongside Puka Nacua in the absence of Davante Adams (IR - hamstring). Another absence for Ferguson leaves Tyler Higbee as well as Colby Parkinson (ribs, questionable), if available, as the Rams' tight top ends, with Davis Allen and Max Klare providing extra bodies for multi-TE sets.
Verdict
vs 31.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
34.7 REC YDS(×1.22 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 29.2 · med 31.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.4 · ceil 54.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 31.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 31.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Nov 8, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 52.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Terrance Ferguson has gone over 31.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (52.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.