Los Angeles Rams

Terrance Ferguson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Terrance Ferguson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutTerrance Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Oregon product had a quiet rookie campaign in 2025, catching 11 of 25 targets for 231 yards and three touchdowns over 14 regular-season games, but veteran tight end Tyler Higbee said he believes Ferguson is "going to be a great player." With that said, Ferguson could face plenty of competition for snaps during the coming campaign, as the Rams have a crowded tight-end room that includes Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and second-round rookie Max Klare.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	3/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%2/7Low

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 18, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

CHI allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Terrance Ferguson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. CHI has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.