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Miami DolphinsTheo Wease Jr.
#81 · WR · 6' 2" · 210 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Missouri
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 38.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTheo Wease Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wease played substantial snaps at wide receiver for the Dolphins' last three contests of the 2025 season. He caught six of his 10 targets for 130 yards and one touchdown over the three-game span. The team drafted Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell (ACL) in the third round of the 2026 draft, as well as Kevin Coleman in the fifth round. With all three new receivers set to compete throughout the preseason, Wease may have to show out to remain on the roster.
Verdict
vs 37.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency74supports it
Projection
38.3 REC YDS
L5 38.0 · L10 38.0 · med 38.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 34.4 · ceil 41.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 37.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 37.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 4, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Theo Wease Jr. has gone over 37.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.