Miami Dolphins

Theo Wease Jr. Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Theo Wease Jr. has gone over 2.5 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Missouri
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.5 REC · our line

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OutTheo Wease Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wease played substantial snaps at wide receiver for the Dolphins' last three contests of the 2025 season. He caught six of his 10 targets for 130 yards and one touchdown over the three-game span. The team drafted Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell (ACL) in the third round of the 2026 draft, as well as Kevin Coleman in the fifth round. With all three new receivers set to compete throughout the preseason, Wease may have to show out to remain on the roster.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency67supports it

Projection

2.5 REC

L5 2.5 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.2 · ceil 2.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
2.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 4, 2026

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Theo Wease Jr. has gone over 2.5 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.