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Carolina PanthersTommy Tremble
#82 · TE · 6' 4" · 250 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 25.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTommy Tremble isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tremble sat out of Friday's practice while dealing with knee soreness, but he's back on the field to start the week. The 26-year-old is coming off a career-best 2025 season where he recorded career highs in receptions (27), yards (249) and targets (37) over 17 regular-season games. Tremble is headed into a contract year after signing a two-year extension during the 2025 offseason and is expected to once again share primary pass-catching duties at tight end with Ja'Tavion Sanders.
Verdict
vs 21.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
24.5 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 25.8 · L10 25.3 · med 21.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 11.8 · ceil 39.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 21.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Next matchup — @ ARI
Aug 7, 2026
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
ARI allows 33.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tommy Tremble has gone over 21.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (33.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.