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Carolina PanthersTommy Tremble Targets
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tommy Tremble has gone over 3.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 3.4 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTommy Tremble isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tremble sat out of Friday's practice while dealing with knee soreness, but he's back on the field to start the week. The 26-year-old is coming off a career-best 2025 season where he recorded career highs in receptions (27), yards (249) and targets (37) over 17 regular-season games. Tremble is headed into a contract year after signing a two-year extension during the 2025 offseason and is expected to once again share primary pass-catching duties at tight end with Ja'Tavion Sanders.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency15argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
3.2 TGT(×0.96 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 10% | 1/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ ARI
Aug 7, 2026
7thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
ARI allows 4.1 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tommy Tremble has gone over 3.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Tommy Tremble research
Tommy Tremble — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Tremble Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Tremble Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Tremble Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.