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Seattle SeahawksTory Horton Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tory Horton has gone over 3.5 REC in 1 of his last 9 decided games (11%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Linepays more
Receptions · season avg 2.2 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutTory Horton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Horton was on the field for 43 of the Seahawks' 63 offensive snaps, with his 68 percent share representing a season high. The six targets were also a season-best total for Horton, who was the main beneficiary of extra playing time due to the absence of Rashid Shaheed (knee). If Shaheed is cleared to play in the Seahawks' Week 9 game against the Cardinals, Horton will likely see his role get reduced.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 20% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency8argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
2.5 REC(×1.08 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Last 209 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Season9 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days13%1/8Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba out-0.2 REC when he sits
Without (6g)
2.2 REC
17% over 3.5
With (3g)
2.3 REC
0% over 3.5
George Holani out-0.2 REC when he sits
Without (6g)
2.2 REC
17% over 3.5
With (3g)
2.3 REC
0% over 3.5
Next matchup — vs ARI
Nov 8, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 3.1 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Tory Horton has gone over 3.5 REC 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. ARI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 59.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 40.1%
Best Over
BetMGM-165
-3.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+142
-2.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-39.4%
Our model puts the over at 20.4% vs the market's no-vig 59.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.
More Tory Horton research
Tory Horton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Horton Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Horton Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Horton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.