Seattle Seahawks

Tory Horton Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 3, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tory Horton has gone over 2.5 REC in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Colorado State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.2 REC · our line

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OutTory Horton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Horton's return is a notable step after he was held out of 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills during offseason team activities. Though his promising rookie year was cut short, he flashed touchdown upside on limited volume with five receiving scores and a punt-return touchdown across just eight regular-season games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed still give Seattle a crowded receiver room, but Horton now has a full camp to push for a rotational role and maintain deep-league relevance.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line40neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.2 REC(×0.97 context)

L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 2.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	5/6
	67%	4/6
2.5Current	50%	3/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

Last matchup — @ WSH

Nov 3, 2025

3rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

WSH allows 3.8 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Tory Horton has gone over 2.5 REC 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.