Washington Commanders

Treylon Burks Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Treylon Burks has gone over 4.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arkansas
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.4 FS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Treylon Burks's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified

Burks missed Thursday's practice due to a sore foot, but he wasn't held out of action long. That's good news for the 2022 first-round draft pick, as he has an opportunity during training camp to compete for a major role in the offense. Antonio Williams and Luke McCaffrey are among the other players jostling for the No. 2 WR role behind Terry McLaurin in an unsettled Washington receiver corps.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.1 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 4.4 · med 4.1

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.1 · ceil 7.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	5/6
	67%	4/6
	50%	3/6
4.5Current	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	20%	1/5

Last 6 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

30thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

PHI allows 8.1 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 62 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Treylon Burks has gone over 4.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most FS of 32 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.