Washington Commanders

Treylon Burks Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Treylon Burks has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arkansas
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.5 REC · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Treylon Burks's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified

Burks missed Thursday's practice due to a sore foot, but he wasn't held out of action long. That's good news for the 2022 first-round draft pick, as he has an opportunity during training camp to compete for a major role in the offense. Antonio Williams and Luke McCaffrey are among the other players jostling for the No. 2 WR role behind Terry McLaurin in an unsettled Washington receiver corps.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 53% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.5 REC(×1.02 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	5/6
1.5Current	50%	3/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

29thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

PHI allows 3.1 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 62 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Treylon Burks has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC of 32 teams (3.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.