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Denver BroncosTroy Franklin
#11 · WR · 6' 3" · 180 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 45.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTroy Franklin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Franklin missed Denver's loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game due to a hamstring injury, but he now appears back to full health. The 2024 fourth-round pick totaled just 263 receiving yards as a rookie but took a sizeable step forward in 2025, with a 65-709-6 receiving line (on 104 targets) across 17 regular-season appearances. The Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle earlier in the offseason, providing another alpha receiver atop the depth chart alongside Courtland Sutton, so Franklin faces increased competition for targets entering Year 3. If he can take a step forward in his development and build increased chemistry with QB Bo Nix (ankle), though, Franklin could well be the favorite for the No. 3 receiver gig over Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
41.3 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 52.6 · L10 45.7 · med 33.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.6 · ceil 84.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 40.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.K. Dobbins out+10.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
52.6 REC YDS
60% over 40.5
With (10g)
42.5 REC YDS
40% over 40.5
Last matchup — @ KC
Dec 26, 2025
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Troy Franklin has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.