Denver Broncos

Troy Franklin Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Troy Franklin has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutTroy Franklin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Franklin missed Denver's loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game due to a hamstring injury, but he now appears back to full health. The 2024 fourth-round pick totaled just 263 receiving yards as a rookie but took a sizeable step forward in 2025, with a 65-709-6 receiving line (on 104 targets) across 17 regular-season appearances. The Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle earlier in the offseason, providing another alpha receiver atop the depth chart alongside Courtland Sutton, so Franklin faces increased competition for targets entering Year 3. If he can take a step forward in his development and build increased chemistry with QB Bo Nix (ankle), though, Franklin could well be the favorite for the No. 3 receiver gig over Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line74supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2015 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Season15 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	5/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%5/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out-0.3 REC TD when he sits

Without (5g)

0.2 REC TD

20% over 0.5

With (10g)

0.5 REC TD

40% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ KC

Dec 26, 2025

30thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Troy Franklin has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 33% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.