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Atlanta FalconsTua Tagovailoa
#1 · QB · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 190.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTua Tagovailoa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tagovailoa had been dealing with some back tightness, which limited him to individual drills Friday, but the QB has progressed to the point where he's back at it for 11-on-11 work. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa's competition for the Falcons' starting signal-caller job, Michael Penix, who is bouncing back from November ACL surgery, remains limited to individual drills and 7-on-7s.
Verdict
vs 175.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency47neutral
Projection
171.0 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 176.2 · L10 190.8 · med 189.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 138.4 · ceil 254.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 175.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 175.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bijan Robinson out+56.3 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
214.1 PASS YDS
75% over 175.5
With (6g)
157.8 PASS YDS
17% over 175.5
Drake London out+47.5 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
200.2 PASS YDS
64% over 175.5
With (3g)
152.7 PASS YDS
0% over 175.5
Last matchup — @ PIT
Dec 16, 2025
1stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PIT allows 260.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 175.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (260.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 60.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.