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Atlanta FalconsTua Tagovailoa Completions
Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 18.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 18.6 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTua Tagovailoa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 24, 2026
Tagovailoa was listed as doubtful for Sunday's contest and Cooper Rush was already announced as the starter, so it comes as little surprise that Tagovailoa will not suit up. It's unclear if Tagovailoa will miss any further action, but he and the Falcons will have a quick turnaround with the Falcons playing Thursday night in Week 3.
Verdict
vs 18.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
14.6 CMP(×0.83 context)
L5 15.2 · L10 18.1 · med 17.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 13.6 · ceil 23.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 20, 2026
13thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 21.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 18.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most CMP of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tua Tagovailoa research
Tua Tagovailoa — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Tagovailoa Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Tagovailoa Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Tagovailoa Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.