Buffalo Bills

Ty Johnson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ty Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 9 decided games (11%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Maryland
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutTy Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Johnson missed the Bills' two playoff games back in January but is now 100 percent healthy. He should again handle the pass-game, change-of-pace role behind James Cook in 2026 after Buffalo did nothing to address the running back room over the offseason. Johnson carried the ball 50 times for 200 yards and three touchdowns and added a 24-263-2 line as a receiver across 17 regular-season contests last season.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 81% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line81supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Last 209 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Season9 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days13%1/8Medium

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

1stof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 0.3 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 33 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 9 games, Ty Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.