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Buffalo BillsTy Johnson
#26 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTy Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson missed the Bills' two playoff games back in January but is now 100 percent healthy. He should again handle the pass-game, change-of-pace role behind James Cook in 2026 after Buffalo did nothing to address the running back room over the offseason. Johnson carried the ball 50 times for 200 yards and three touchdowns and added a 24-263-2 line as a receiver across 17 regular-season contests last season.
Verdict
vs 12.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
19.8 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 18.8 · L10 14.2 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.6 · ceil 19.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 12.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — vs NYJ
Jan 4, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYJ allows 55.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 33 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Ty Johnson has gone over 12.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (55.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.