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Buffalo BillsTy Johnson
#26 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 2.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Ty Johnson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Illness
Johnson will have an extra day to rest up this week, as the Bills host the Vikings on Monday night. Buffalo's preferred pass-catching back, Johnson has rushed six times for just 10 yards through six games this season, but he has caught all 15 of his targets for 174 yards.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
2.3 RUSH YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 2.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIN allows 48.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ty Johnson has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.