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Buffalo BillsTy Johnson
#26 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTy Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hamstring Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Despite being listed as limited on all three of the Bills' Week 2 injury reports, Johnson will continue to don street clothes on game days due to a hamstring issue that has bothered him since at least Aug. 24. In Johnson's absence, Ray Davis will continue to garner RB reps that don't go to starter James Cook, while Frank Gore is on hand in case one of those two leaves the game for any reason.
Verdict
vs 12.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
21.4 RUSH YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 18.8 · L10 14.2 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.6 · ceil 19.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 12.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAC allows 51.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Ty Johnson has gone over 12.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. LAC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.