Buffalo Bills

Ty Johnson Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ty Johnson has gone over 15.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Maryland
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 18.6 REC YDS · our line

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OutTy Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Hamstring Not Specified
Est. return:: Sep 27, 2026

Despite being listed as limited on all three of the Bills' Week 2 injury reports, Johnson will continue to don street clothes on game days due to a hamstring issue that has bothered him since at least Aug. 24. In Johnson's absence, Ray Davis will continue to garner RB reps that don't go to starter James Cook, while Frank Gore is on hand in case one of those two leaves the game for any reason.

Verdict

vs 15.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line37argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

22.6 REC YDS(×1.10 context)

L5 20.4 · L10 18.6 · med 15.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 10.4 · ceil 25.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	6/9
	67%	6/9
	56%	5/9
15.5Current	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9

Last 9 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 5.5 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Ty Johnson has gone over 15.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (5.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.