Tennessee Titans

Tyjae Spears Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 3.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tulane
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our line

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OutTyjae Spears isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Spears at one point appeared at risk of falling down the depth chart entering 2026, but new head coach Robert Saleh has consistently praised the 2023 third-round pick this spring. Lazenby reports that Spears is working to improve his pass-catching this offseason and could operate more as a "1B" behind Pollard than a traditional backup. He managed just 72 carries for 283 yards and two touchdowns across 13 games in 2025, though an improved Titans offensive line could benefit both Spears and Pollard this season. Tennessee selected Nicholas Singleton in the fifth round of the 2026 NFL Draft, so Spears will face additional competition in training camp.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency29argues against it

Projection

4.5 REC(×1.08 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 3.9 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	11/11
	91%	10/11
	82%	9/11
3.5Current	55%	6/11
	36%	4/11
	18%	2/11
	9%	1/11

Last 11 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

Last matchup — @ JAX

Jan 4, 2026

8thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

JAX allows 2.4 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyjae Spears has gone over 3.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.