Tennessee Titans

Tyjae Spears Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tulane
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.2 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutTyjae Spears isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Tony Pollard narrowly out-snapped Spears, 26-25, in the season opener, as the former out-carried Spears seven to three in what was a decidedly negative game script for the Titans. Spears out-targeted his backfield mate four to two and ran 14 routes to Pollard's seven. This looks like a pretty even split, but it'll be tough for either back to produce weekly fantasy reliability in one of the league's worst offenses with a swinging-gate offensive line.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 17% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line27argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 RUSH TD(×0.99 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2011 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Season11 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	18%	2/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home14%1/7Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%2/10Low

Next matchup — @ NYG

Sep 27, 2026

5thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

NYG allows 1.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyjae Spears has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 18% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 5th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.