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Arizona CardinalsTyler Allgeier Receptions
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tyler Allgeier has gone over 0.5 REC in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 0.9 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Allgeier isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allgeier, who inked a two-year, $12.25 million contract with Arizona this offseason, could have an early angle at the lead backfield role with veteran James Conner still not handling 11-on-11 work, though Urban notes that rookie No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love got his share of reps with the first-team offense. While Love projects as the clear eventual leader of the Cardinals' backfield, Allgeier has seniority backing him for the time being and is no slouch, having averaged 4.3 yards per carry across his career. Trey Benson is also healthy and competing for a chance to factor into Arizona's backfield.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 REC(×0.94 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2012 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Season12 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 8/12 | |
| 25% | 3/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days73%8/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacoby Brissett out-0.5 REC when he sits
Without (6g)
0.7 REC
50% over 0.5
With (6g)
1.2 REC
83% over 0.5
Trey McBride out-0.2 REC when he sits
Without (5g)
0.8 REC
60% over 0.5
With (7g)
1.0 REC
71% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs CAR
Aug 7, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
CAR allows 1.9 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Allgeier has gone over 0.5 REC 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 67% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Tyler Allgeier research
Tyler Allgeier — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Allgeier Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.