Arizona Cardinals

Tyler Allgeier Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Allgeier has gone over 2.5 TGT in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: BYU
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.7 TGT · our line

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OutTyler Allgeier isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After previously leading the Cardinals backfield when Love was sidelined due to a different ankle injury Weeks 6 and 7, Allgeier is now slated for a longer run atop the depth chart while Love is projected to miss 4-to-5 weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain. Love sustained his latest ankle injury late in the first quarter of Sunday's overtime win over the Cowboys, with his early exit clearing the way for Allgeier to run wild. Allgeier finished with a career-high 147 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries along with 44 yards and another score on five receptions. In addition to Love getting hurt, Bam Knight sustained a concussion and is uncertain to play Week 9 against Seattle, so the backfield could belong to Allgeier, Evan Hull and a practice-squad signee (likely Jerome Ford). Though Allgeier found substantial success in Week 8, he came into the contest averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on 61 totes. He'll also be facing a Seattle defense that is tied for the second-fewest yards per carry (3.8) allowed to running backs this season, so a repeat performance by Allgeier would be surprising.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency31argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

2.5 TGT(×0.85 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 2.7 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
2.5Current	33%	2/6
	17%	1/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — @ SEA

Nov 8, 2026

17thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

SEA allows 2.7 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 16 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Tyler Allgeier has gone over 2.5 TGT 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.