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Detroit LionsTyler Conklin
#83 · TE · 6' 3" · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Central Michigan
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 16.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Conklin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Knee Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Aug 13, 2026
Conklin signed a one-year contract with the team back in March, and it's currently unclear when he picked up his current injury. Once healthy, the 30-year-old is expected to compete with Brock Wright (neck) for backup snaps behind No. 1 TE Sam LaPorta.
Verdict
vs 9.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
14.3 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 10.2 · L10 16.8 · med 9.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jameson Williams out+7.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
20.7 REC YDS
67% over 9.5
With (3g)
13.0 REC YDS
33% over 9.5
Last matchup — @ DEN
Jan 4, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
DEN allows 28.9 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tyler Conklin has gone over 9.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.