Detroit Lions

Tyler Conklin Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Conklin has gone over 1.5 REC in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Central Michigan
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.2 REC · our line

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OutTyler Conklin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Knee Not Specified
Est. return:: Aug 13, 2026

Conklin signed a one-year contract with the team back in March, and it's currently unclear when he picked up his current injury. Once healthy, the 30-year-old is expected to compete with Brock Wright (neck) for backup snaps behind No. 1 TE Sam LaPorta.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency2argues against it

Projection

1.1 REC(×0.96 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	5/6
1.5Current	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%1/5Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jameson Williams out-0.3 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

1.0 REC

33% over 1.5

With (3g)

1.3 REC

33% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ DEN

Jan 4, 2026

17thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

DEN allows 2.6 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Tyler Conklin has gone over 1.5 REC 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 17th-most REC of 32 teams (2.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.