New York Giants

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has gone over 3.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Purdue
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.6 TGT · our line

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OutTyrone Tracy Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Skattebo had taken over as the Giants' lead back in 2025, but after sustaining his injury in Week 8, Tracy took on the role, en route to recording 176 carries for 740 yards and two TDs to go along with a 36/288/2 receiving line in 15 regular-season contests. While Skattebo is still ramping up toward full practice participation, he's on track to be "ready to go" ahead of Week 1, thus putting him in a position to reclaim top billing in New York's backfield, though Tracy still figures see his share of touches in 2026 alongside Skattebo, with veteran RB Devin Singletary also in the mix. Eric Gray, Dante Miller and Damon Bankston are also on hand in reserve as training camp approaches.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.2 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	90%	9/10
	60%	6/10
3.5Current	50%	5/10
	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%4/9Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jaxson Dart out+1.0 TGT when he sits

Without (3g)

4.3 TGT

100% over 3.5

With (7g)

3.3 TGT

29% over 3.5

Last matchup — vs DAL

Jan 4, 2026

5thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

DAL allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has gone over 3.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 5th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.