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Indianapolis ColtsWill Mallory
#86 · TE · 6' 4" · 239 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 16.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutWill Mallory isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mallory was able to appear in only two games in 2025 in part due to a lung issue, but he's evidently back in shape for football activities with offseason workouts underway. With 2025 first-rounder Tyler Warren, veteran Mo Alie-Cox and in-line specialist Drew Ogletree all returning in 2026, Mallory will have to compete for a spot on Indianapolis' final 53-man roster.
Verdict
vs 15.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
16.0 REC YDS
L5 16.0 · L10 16.0 · med 16.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 16.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 15.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs JAX
Dec 28, 2025
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
JAX allows 29.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 1 games, Will Mallory has gone over 15.5 REC YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (29.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.