Indianapolis Colts

Will Mallory Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Will Mallory has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Miami
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutWill Mallory isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mallory was able to appear in only two games in 2025 in part due to a lung issue, but he's evidently back in shape for football activities with offseason workouts underway. With 2025 first-rounder Tyler Warren, veteran Mo Alie-Cox and in-line specialist Drew Ogletree all returning in 2026, Mallory will have to compete for a spot on Indianapolis' final 53-man roster.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Last matchup — vs JAX

Dec 28, 2025

7thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

JAX allows 0.3 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Will Mallory has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.