Houston Texans

Woody Marks Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Woody Marks has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 5 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutWoody Marks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Marks acted as the Texans' primary running back for a fourth straight game, three of which David Montgomery has missed completely due to a groin injury. During that stretch, Marks has racked up 75 touches for 321 yards from scrimmage, but he has yet to reach the end zone since Week 4. Montgomery wasn't able to practice this week, so Marks may be in line for another role as Houston's No. 1 backfield option next Sunday at Cleveland if the former doesn't make the requisite progress in his recovery.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×0.92 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 105 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 205 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Season5 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/4Low

Next matchup — @ CLE

Nov 15, 2026

21stof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

CLE allows 0.0 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Woody Marks has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 5 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 21st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.