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Houston TexansXavier Hutchinson
#19 · WR · 6' 3" · 210 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 41.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutXavier Hutchinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
On a day in which C.J. Stroud targeted nine different players, Hutchinson tied Dalton Schultz for the team lead with six targets. Nico Collins led the wideout group with 24 routes, but Hutchinson tied Jaylin Noel (toe) for second at the position with 15 routes. In a receiver room that is running six deep on game days, none of these Houston wide receivers are reliably playable in fantasy outside of Collins.
Verdict
vs 21.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line84supports it
Consistency39argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
37.8 REC YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 43.2 · L10 41.3 · med 41.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.0 · ceil 51.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 106 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Last 206 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Season6 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Situational splits
Over 21.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days80%4/5Low
Next matchup — @ LAC
Nov 8, 2026
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 35.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 21.5 REC YDS 5 of 6 decided times (83%) — versus 83% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (35.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 21.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+34.2%
Our model puts the over at 84.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (21 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 83%.