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Carolina PanthersXavier Legette
#17 · WR · 6' 3" · 227 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutXavier Legette isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
A 2024 first-round pick, Legette will need to prove himself even if the competition looks weak. He struggled through his first two NFL seasons and fell decisively behind Jalen Coker on the depth chart last year. Ona positive note, Legette told reporters in June that he was down to 221 pounds after playing at around 230 last year.
Verdict
vs 21.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
22.6 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 20.6 · L10 34.8 · med 22.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.4 · ceil 37.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2012 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Season12 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 21.5Current | 58% | 7/12 | |
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away75%6/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days64%7/11Low
Last matchup — vs LAR
Jan 10, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 48.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Xavier Legette has gone over 21.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 58% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.