Carolina Panthers

Xavier Legette Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Legette has gone over 2.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.7 REC · our line

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OutXavier Legette isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

A 2024 first-round pick, Legette will need to prove himself even if the competition looks weak. He struggled through his first two NFL seasons and fell decisively behind Jalen Coker on the depth chart last year. Ona positive note, Legette told reporters in June that he was down to 221 pounds after playing at around 230 last year.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.0 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.8 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	67%	8/12
2.5Current	42%	5/12
	17%	2/12
	8%	1/12
	8%	1/12

Last 12 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away63%5/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%4/11Low

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 10, 2026

7thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

LAR allows 3.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Xavier Legette has gone over 2.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most REC of 32 teams (3.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.