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Kansas City ChiefsXavier Worthy
#1 · WR · 5' 11" · 165 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 44.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Xavier Worthy's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Shoulder Sprain
Initial reports after Worthy left Saturday's training camp practice due to his shoulder injury were that the wideout had avoided a serious issue, and Reid's comment on the matter Monday supports that notion. For now, consider Worthy day-to-day as the Chiefs' Aug. 15 preseason opener approaches.
Verdict
vs 41.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
40.5 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 47.0 · L10 40.8 · med 38.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 25.0 · ceil 59.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 41.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 41.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kenneth Walker III out+6.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
46.5 REC YDS
63% over 41.5
With (3g)
39.7 REC YDS
33% over 41.5
Last matchup — vs LAC
Dec 14, 2025
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 38.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 57 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Xavier Worthy has gone over 41.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (38.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 18.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.