Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Worthy has gone over 9.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.4 FS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Xavier Worthy's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Shoulder Sprain

Initial reports after Worthy left Saturday's training camp practice due to his shoulder injury were that the wideout had avoided a serious issue, and Reid's comment on the matter Monday supports that notion. For now, consider Worthy day-to-day as the Chiefs' Aug. 15 preseason opener approaches.

Verdict

vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 35% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral

Projection vs line35argues against it

Consistency43neutral

Projection

7.7 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 8.2 · L10 8.7 · med 9.2

Consistency

Variable

floor 6.0 · ceil 11.1

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	73%	8/11
	73%	8/11
	60%	6/10
9.5Current	55%	6/11
	36%	4/11
	9%	1/11
	9%	1/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenneth Walker III out+3.4 FS when he sits

Without (8g)

10.4 FS

63% over 9.5

With (3g)

7.0 FS

33% over 9.5

Last matchup — vs LAC

Dec 14, 2025

27thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

LAC allows 8.3 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 57 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Xavier Worthy has gone over 9.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 32 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.