Loading…
New Orleans SaintsZaire Mitchell-Paden
#84 · TE · 6' 5" · 257 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida Atlantic
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 5.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutZaire Mitchell-Paden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mitchell-Paden was dealing with a knee injury at the end of last season that landed him on injured reserve in January, but he appears to be back in football shape with minicamp underway. He'll be competing for a depth spot as an in-line tight end on the Saints' 53-man roster for 2026.
Verdict
vs 2.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.2 REC YDS
L5 5.7 · L10 5.7 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 9.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 2.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%2/2Low
Last matchup — @ CAR
Nov 9, 2025
19thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CAR allows 26.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Zaire Mitchell-Paden has gone over 2.5 REC YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.